Who the Arizona Coyotes can protect, lose in the NHL expansion draft

Trades and free agency usually spark the most roster turnover each offseason in the NHL, but a catalyst this summer will be instigating change.

The expansion draft.

Each of the incumbent 30 teams will lose one player to the Vegas Golden Knights to help the league’s newest club fill out its lineup for its inaugural season, but only certain players will be available for selection.

Players who have two or fewer years of NHL experience are exempt from the process, along with unsigned draft picks. All players who hold no-movement clauses must be protected unless they choose to waive those clauses.

Teams have two options for protecting players; they can either shield seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters (any combination of forwards and defensemen) and one goalie.

Teams must submit their protected lists by 2 p.m. Saturday. Those lists will be distributed Sunday, and Golden Knights brass will have until 7 a.m. Wednesday to make its selections. Vegas’ picks will be revealed later that day in conjunction with the NHL’s annual awards show.

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The Coyotes have yet to finalize who they will protect and which format they’ll choose, as there’s a chance their roster could change before a trade freeze kicks in Saturday at noon.

With a handful of teams unable to protect every key player, trades that guarantee they receive some type of asset for someone who may be lost for nothing have been forecasted – a possibility Coyotes General Manager John Chayka feels still exists as there’s been plenty of chatter among league bosses this week.

“Hopefully something lines up here and falls in our direction,” Chayka said. “But that stuff’s unpredictable. I think we’ve had a pretty good process. We’ve worked hard at this.”

Who might the Coyotes protect?

In terms of protecting players, Arizona is in an envious position with a sizable chunk of its returning roster exempt from selection.

Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, Clayton Keller, Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun and Anthony DeAngelo haven’t played enough games to qualify for the expansion draft.

With most of those players up front, it makes sense if the Coyotes protect eight skaters rather than seven forwards. This gives them the flexibility to keep more of their blue line intact while not affecting the core of their forward group.

Should they choose this tactic, their protection list could include goalie Mike Smith, defensemen Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski, Connor Murphy and Luke Schenn. As for the forwards, the list could be Tobias Rieder, Anthony Duclair, Jordan Martinook and Alexander Burmistrov.

Smith seems like an easy call at goalie; he’s been the team’s No. 1 for the past six seasons, is one of its few veterans and is coming off a steady showing in 2016-17 in which he was arguably the Coyotes’ best performer.

Ekman-Larsson is a bonafide top tier defenseman and a franchise cornerstone. Goligoski was the team’s prized offseason acquisition last summer and has 4 more years on his contract; he also is equipped with a no-movement clause that the team did not ask him to waive.

Murphy also landed a long-term contract last summer, and Schenn spent much of last season on the top pairing next to Ekman-Larsson.

As for the forwards, Rieder is a top-nine staple praised frequently for his speed, work ethic and improving shot. Duclair, Martinook and Burmistrov are all restricted free agents who need new deals, but Duclair and Martinook figure to have to future roles while Burmistrov could bolster depth at a critical position.

Despite a major setback in his sophomore season, Duclair is still just a season removed from a 20-goal output. Martinook has become invaluable for his versatility and proficiency on the penalty kill. And although Burmistrov didn’t join the Coyotes until January and missed time due to injury, he was intriguing enough that he may be worth another look – especially if the Coyotes don’t make any other additions at center.

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Unrestricted free agents are allowed to be protected, but that would mean allocating a spot to a player who could end up leaving – a strategy that doesn’t make sense to Chayka.

So the likes of captain Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata probably won’t be protected. To be added by Vegas – and count as its selection – the Golden Knights would have to negotiate a contract with the player during their deliberation window.

Doan continues to mull his future and whether or not he wants to suit up for a 22nd season.

“He’s kind of figuring things out right now,” said Doan’s agent, Terry Bross. “I think he’s going to play, but I couldn’t say he’s going to. I don’t think they’ve made a final decision yet. I think they’re talking it over as a family, and I told him there’s no rush. Make your decision, and we’ll go with it.”

While Doan adheres to the “never say never” philosophy, it seems unlikely he’d sign elsewhere to keep playing.

Vrbata has said his preference is to stay with the Coyotes, but UFAs are eligible to sign with anyone starting July 1.

Who might the Coyotes lose?

Every team must expose at least one defenseman and two forwards who are under contract for next season and have logged 40 or more games last season or 70 or more the past two. A goalie who is under contract for next season or will be a restricted free agent who has already received his qualifying offer must also be exposed.

These choices leave forwards Jamie McGinn and Brad Richardson, defenseman Kevin Connauton and backup goalie Louis Domingue exposed to Vegas.

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McGinn has a 20-goal season in the rearview, but registered only nine in 2016-17 as he struggled in his first season with the Coyotes. Richardson missed most of last season after fracturing tibia and fibula bones in his right leg in November but had been a valuable center because of his experience.

Both slot in the top-nine with the Coyotes but are two of only three current forwards who meet the exposure requirement. Rieder is the other eligible option, but the Coyotes probably don’t want to risk losing his skill set.

As for Connauton, he was frequently the odd-man out on the back end last season – and Domingue remains Smith’s understudy.

Keep an eye out for moves

The Coyotes could have more exposure possibilities at forward if they sign any of their current RFAs. While Duclair and Martinook are expected to be qualified by the June 25 deadline, Burmistrov and forwards Josh Jooris, Peter Holland and Teemu Pulkkinen could have been short-term fixes last season.

However, if the Coyotes wanted to re-sign any of them, all but Pulkkinen would meet the exposure requirement – an option Chayka acknowledged as a possibility. This would give the team the flexibility to protect a regular like McGinn and/or Richardson.

Once the trade freeze is lifted next Thursday, more deals connected to the expansion draft could emerge.

Teams could have holes to fill based on who they lost to Vegas, and the Golden Knights may end up with a surplus of similar players and be in position to move some out.

“I’m curious to see how it all goes and shakes out,” Chayka said. “Still hopeful that we can take advantage of one or two special opportunities to add some players that can help our team next year. That’s our goal.”

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Reach the reporter at [email protected] or 602-444-8276. Follow her at twitter.com/azc_mclellan.