Arizona Diamondbacks riding closer Fernando Rodney into postseason

If the Diamondbacks find themselves with a slim lead after eight innings on Wednesday night, they will put their season in the hands of a closer few in baseball trust. The bullpen door will swing open and Fernando Rodney will begin his slow trek to the mound. The image alone creates anxiety for Diamondbacks fans.

That the Diamondbacks have reached this point with Rodney as their closer is a fascinating development on a number of levels. It’s also an outcome that made logical sense every step of the way.

Rodney seemed like a reasonable pickup at the time the Diamondbacks signed him in December. His struggles this season, particularly early on, were never so pronounced to justify removing him from the role. And he’s pitched so well, in fact, that he probably deserves more faith than what generally is ascribed to him.

But his reputation has created a situation for the Diamondbacks in which they can’t win – unless they win. If Rodney blows a save, the baseball world will wonder what the Diamondbacks expected to happen. If they make a change and someone else coughs up a lead, the question will shift to why they went away from something that worked the entire year.

So, it seems, the Diamondbacks will ride him as long as they can, and they will hope his relative success this season translates to success in October.

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Veteran option

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Rodney this October is that the Diamondbacks likely wouldn’t have signed him if they expected to be here. Most onlookers in the industry assume that if the Diamondbacks were gearing up to field a contending team, they likely would have pursued a more stable option.

When they signed him in December, Rodney was coming off a year in which his end-of-season numbers were respectable, but the way he got there was alarming. He logged a 3.44 ERA with 25 saves in 28 chances, but his second half was miserable, as he posted a 6.16 ERA after the All-Star break.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, ended the 2016 season with their bullpen in shambles. They did not have a proven closer. They had perhaps two setup men assured of jobs. So Rodney represented an established closer, an appealing option for a Diamondbacks front office that did not like the idea of entering spring training with the ninth-inning job up for grabs.

“Having the ninth inning locked down,” General Manager Mike Hazen said, “gave us some freedom to be a little bit more aggressive with our other guys in terms of just making a competition and seeing where it was all going to fall out.”

The Diamondbacks gave Rodney a $2.75 million guarantee with a chance to earn more based on games finished and overall appearances. He wound up making $4.25 million this season.

Checkered past

Rodney is a hard thrower with a devastating change-up. Even at age 40, he can run his fastball into the mid-90s with regularity, often getting as high as 97. His change-up this season induced a .151 opponents’ average as well as swings and misses 22 percent of the time.

But he can often be his own worst enemy. The average major-league pitcher issues 3.3 walks per nine innings. Rodney, in his career, has walked 4.4. As such, he’s logged just six seasons in which his ERA was below 4.00.

His saves are often referred to as “experiences,” tightrope-walking appearances that, even when successful, lead many to lose faith in him.

Unsurprisingly, the best season of his career was the year he threw the most strikes. In 2012, Rodney had one of the better relief seasons in baseball history, posting a 0.60 ERA in 74 2/3 innings. He walked just 15 batters – 1.8 per nine innings.

Every other season of his career, he has walked more batters than the average. That includes this season.

But his 2017 was likely far better than a glance at the ERA would suggest. He had a 4.23 ERA in 55 1/3 innings, but most of the damage came in bunches. There were four blowups in which Rodney was charged with 15 of the 26 earned runs he allowed all season.

Two of those ugly outings led to what turned out to be a critical juncture in late April.

Pivotal moment

On April 26, Rodney gave up five runs in a messy blown save against the San Diego Padres. Three days later, the Rockies scored three times off him in another dispiriting loss.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo put forward a steely front, saying he had faith in Rodney and had no intention of changing closers. But behind the scenes, the Diamondbacks changed plans just in case.

Prior to Rodney’s meltdowns, they had been planning to shift reliever Archie Bradley into a starting role for a series in Washington, D.C. But Rodney forced them to reconsider; they opted instead to keep Bradley where he was in case he was needed to close.

Things couldn’t have worked out better. Rodney went on an incredible run, going his next 19 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run. Bradley emerged as one of baseball’s dominant setup men. And the starting spot eventually went to right-hander Zack Godley, whose consistent year out of the rotation was one of the team’s pleasant surprises.

Finishing strongly

Over his final 50 appearances, Rodney logged a 2.38 ERA and allowed a minuscule .154 opponents’ batting average. He converted 33 of his final 37 save chances. He was one of the more reliable closers in baseball.

“I was willing to wait out April and May to see how it looked,” Lovullo said. “And if we needed to change directions, we could. But I felt like watching him in spring training, his work ethic and the way he went about his business, that he was going to be just fine.”

Rodney this season had far fewer “roller-coaster” outings than his reputation suggested, but even his prolonged dominance hasn’t changed the way he’s perceived.

In the baseball industry, scouts often talk about his unpredictability. Fans routinely express their dread when he enters close games. And reporters pepper Lovullo about Rodney’s job security after every shaky outing, even asking as recently as Sept. 10, the day after Rodney blew his first save in more than two months.

“There’s no controversy,” Lovullo said at the time. “Fernando is still our closer.”

That remains the case as the Diamondbacks enter Wednesday night’s wild-card game. Whether the club’s faith is warranted remains to be seen.

Reach Piecoro at (602) 444-8680 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @nickpiecoro.

Wednesday’s game

Rockies at Diamondbacks

When: 5:08 p.m.

Where: Chase Field (Roof hotline: 602-462-6262).

Pitchers: Diamondbacks RHP Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20) vs. Rockies RHP Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67).

TV/Radio: TBS/KMVP-AM (98.7), KHOV-FM (105.1).

Greinke finished his season on a somewhat shaky note, giving up 10 earned runs in eight innings over his final two starts, with four walks, seven strikeouts and four home runs allowed. … Greinke threw well against the Rockies this season, posting a 3.41 ERA in five starts. … He also threw well at Chase Field, where he had a 2.87 ERA in 18 starts. … Gray finished the season on a strong note; he had a 2.44 ERA in his final 11 starts, with 15 walks, 66 strikeouts and four homers allowed in his final 66 1/3 innings. … Gray had good numbers against the Diamondbacks this season. In three starts, he had a 3.50 ERA with four walks and 26 strikeouts in 18 innings. … Gray throws mostly mid-to-upper 90s fastballs and a slider that averages about 89-90 mph. He’ll also mix in a curveball and change-up.