Arizona reported fewer than 800 new COVID-19 cases and no new known deaths on Monday as hospitalizations for the disease continued to drop to the lowest levels seen since the start of November.

Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 19th Sunday among all states, after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker.

The state’s seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked seventh in the nation as of Sunday, per the CDC. 

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has been declining but varies somewhat based on how it’s measured.

Last week, Arizona’s percent positivity was 5% after being at 7% the week prior and 9% the two weeks before that, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 4% as of Monday. It shows the state’s percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

Arizona’s seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases was 1,345 on Monday, per state data. It reached as high as 9,800 in January.

The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began was 224 deaths per 100,000 people as of Sunday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average was 157 deaths per 100,000 people as of Sunday, the CDC said.

New York City had the highest death rate, at 355 deaths per 100,000 people. After that followed New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Mississippi.

The state’s case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began also ranked sixth nationwide as of Sunday.

Arizona’s known COVID-19 death count remained at 16,328, as no deaths were reported on Monday. Few new deaths are typically reported on Mondays. The state surpassed 16,000 deaths on March 2 after passing 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March.

Many of the deaths occurred days or weeks prior, due to reporting delays and death certificate matching.

In slightly more than one year since the first case was announced in Arizona, a total of 827,237 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. February and March have seen relatively lower case reports. Monday’s 783 new cases was the lowest report since early November.

The Arizona data dashboard shows 85% of all ICU beds and 89% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Sunday, with 15% of ICU beds and 11% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 269 ICU beds and 968 non-ICU beds were available.

Hospitalizations for the disease have been dropping for about eight weeks but remain at relatively high levels. 

The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 919 on Sunday, down from Saturday’s 963 and far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. By comparison, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 256 on Sunday, down from 273 on Saturday and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 127 on Sunday, down from Saturday’s 143 and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Sunday saw 990 patients in the emergency room for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for Phase 1A the week of Dec. 14, but the process has moved slowly because of limited vaccine supply. Registration is open in counties for priority or all Phase 1B individuals and in most places for those 65 and older, and the state recently switched to a partly age-based rollout so those 55 and older are starting to be eligible at state sites and in some counties.

Closet to 1.4 million people statewide had received at least one vaccine dose as of Monday, with about 774,000 people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with two doses, state data show. 

What to know about Monday’s numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 827,237.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 783, or 0.09%, from Sunday’s 826,454 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the Arizona Department of Health Services, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 516,720 in Maricopa, 110,590 in Pima, 46,980 in Pinal, 36,571 in Yuma, 21,429 in Mohave, 18,024 in Yavapai, 16,771 in Coconino, 15,765 in Navajo, 11,338 in Cochise, 10,667 in Apache, 7,659 in Santa Cruz, 6,420 in Gila, 5,319 in Graham, 2,423 in La Paz and 561 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Navajo and Graham counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 15,903 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 8,666 cases per 100,000 people as of Sunday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 29,857 cases and 1,198 confirmed deaths in total as of Saturday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Tribal leaders halted weekend lockdowns after Jan. 25, although a stay-at-home order and nightly curfew remained in effect. 

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,033 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday, including 2,240 in Tucson, 2,009 in Eyman, 2,008 in Yuma, 1,302 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 43,621 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,699 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Thirty-five incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 19 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 18% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 37% of positive cases have been in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% are Native American, 3% are Black and 1% are Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were over age 65.

Laboratories have completed 3,850,348 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19, 14.2% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July and held steady around 4% for several weeks, per the state. It was at 5% for the last full week. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The Arizona Department of Health Services includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) are a newer type of COVID-19 diagnostic test that uses a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Depending on the situation, Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Sunday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Tennessee, according to the CDC.

Arizona’s infection rate is 11,336 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 8,666 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early on in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 16,328

Deaths by county: 9,316 in Maricopa, 2,261 in Pima, 799 in Yuma, 793 in Pinal, 656 in Mohave, 505 in Navajo, 473 in Yavapai, 394 in Apache, 315 in Coconino, 270 in Cochise, 218 in Gila, 170 in Santa Cruz, 75 in Graham, 73 in La Paz and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 12,243 of the 16,328 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 15% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 7% of deaths, 49% of those who died were white, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Monday morning was 2,595,055 and the U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 525,035 according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona’s death total of 16,328 deaths represents 3.1% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as of Monday.

Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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