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Arizona’s COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations remained at high levels again this week as people continue to die from the disease.
The state last week passed the milestone of more than 1 million known cases of COVID-19 reported in Arizona since the pandemic began. Cases have recently been on the rise as the highly contagious delta variant has helped drive up infections statewide and across the country.
Recent trends of high cases are continuing, with 3,802 new cases reported Friday, in addition to 80 new known deaths.
Hospitalizations have been on the uptick, with 2,051 patients hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 on Thursday, about the most since mid-February.
Friday’s new report marked one of the highest daily additions of new cases since early February.
Previous days this week saw the following new case reports: 3,893 on Aug. 28; 2,090 on Aug. 29; 3,247 on Aug. 30; 822 on Aug. 31; 4,740 on Sept. 1; and 3,470 on Sept. 2.
Death reports for the past week were: 55 on Aug. 28; eight on Aug. 29; zero on Aug. 30; minus one on Aug. 31; 67 on Sept. 1; and 26 on Sept. 2.
A data-processing issue caused a low report on Aug. 31 and a high catch-up report on Sept. 1, according to state health officials.
The Arizona Republic generally recaps the state’s daily numbers online in a COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story online on Thursdays or Fridays and in the newspaper on Sundays.
Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 27th Thursday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January and then lower since, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 Data Tracker.
Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated. Last week, it ranked 28th.
The state’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 3,152 on Friday, compared with 3,184 one week earlier and 2,941 two weeks ago. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.
Arizona’s seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 17th in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it’s measured. It’s been increasing in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread.
For most of May and June, Arizona’s percent positivity was at 5% but increased to 6% for the weeks of June 20 and June 27 and 9% for the week of July 4, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. It was 12% for the week of July 11; 13% for the week of July 18; 14% for the week of July 25; 14% for the week of Aug. 1; 12% for the week of Aug. 8; 11% for the week of Aug. 15; 11% for the week of Aug. 22; and 12% so far for the week of Aug. 29. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.
Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 8% as of Friday. It shows the state’s percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.
A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease’s spread is under control.
The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.
The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 259 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it seventh in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 193 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
New York City has the highest death rate, at 403 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Mississippi, Louisiana, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Arizona’s case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began ranked 13th nationwide as of Thursday.
Arizona’s known COVID-19 death count was at 18,959 after 80 new known deaths were reported on Friday.
The state surpassed 18,000 deaths on July 6 after passing 17,000 deaths on April 7, 16,000 deaths on March 2, 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.
Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.
A total of 1,023,935 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. March, April, May and June saw relatively lower case reports.
Hospitalization numbers remain high
The Arizona data dashboard shows 92% of all ICU beds and 90% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 32% of ICU beds and 23% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 149 ICU beds and 833 non-ICU beds were available.
The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,051 on Thursday, an increase from recent weeks but still far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.
The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona has been trending up and reached 557 on Thursday, which is still far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July 2020, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.
Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 353 on Thursday, higher than last week but well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer 2020 surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.
Thursday saw 1,546 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.
Vaccination update
Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, long-term care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December. The state shifted largely to an age-based rollout in early March and in late March began allowing anyone 16 and older to start registering for appointments. Arizonans ages 12 and older are eligible to get the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older.
The state reported more than 4 million people in Arizona — about 56.2% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with more than 3.5 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
Arizona’s rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 48.1%, which is behind the national rate of 52.7%, according to the CDC as of Thursday.
Out of the total population that’s eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, those ages 12 and older, 56.4% of those eligible in Arizona are fully vaccinated compared with 61.7% at the national level, CDC data shows.
What to know about Friday’s numbers
Reported cases in Arizona: 1,023,935.
Cases since the outbreak began increased by 3,802, or 0.37%, from Thursday’s 1,020,133 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered.
Cases by county: 648,475 in Maricopa, 128,362 in Pima, 63,747 in Pinal, 39,531 in Yuma, 28,724 in Mohave, 23,965 in Yavapai, 19,975 in Coconino, 18,697 in Navajo, 13,208 in Cochise, 12,508 in Apache, 8,534 in Santa Cruz, 8,359 in Gila, 6,387 in Graham, 2,721 in La Paz and 742 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Apache County, followed by Yuma, Graham, Navajo and Santa Cruz counties, per state data. The rate in Apache County is 17,419 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 11,894 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
The Navajo Nation reported 32,707 cases and 1,406 confirmed deaths in total as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.
The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,373 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Thursday, including 2,244 in Tucson, 2,035 in Eyman, 2,011 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 49,471 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,968 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-three incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 10 additional deaths under investigation.
Race/ethnicity is unknown for 17% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but of positive cases, the breakdown is 38% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.
Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 18% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 14% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.
Laboratories had completed 5,165,630 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19 as of Friday, 12.7% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. For most of May and the first part of June, Arizona’s percent positivity was at 5% before rising again in late June, according to the state. Percent positivity is at 12% so far for the week of Aug. 29. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.
The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.
A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic said. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.
Arizona as of Thursday had the 13th-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, Tennessee, Rhode Island, Florida, Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Louisiana, Utah, Alabama, South Carolina and Oklahoma, according to the CDC.
Arizona’s infection rate is 13,968 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 11,894 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.
Reported deaths in Arizona: 18,959
Deaths by county: 10,880 in Maricopa, 2,519 in Pima, 951 in Pinal, 866 in Yuma, 855 in Mohave, 587 in Yavapai, 576 in Navajo, 454 in Apache, 341 in Coconino, 306 in Cochise, 248 in Gila, 187 in Santa Cruz, 93 in Graham, 82 in La Paz and 14 in Greenlee.
People age 65 and older make up 13,971 of the 18,959 deaths, or 74%. About 15% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 7% were 45-54 and 5% were 20-44 years old.
While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 51% of those who died were white, 28% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.
The global death toll as of Friday was 4,546,104. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 643,776, followed by Brazil at 581,914 and India at 439,895, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Arizona’s 18,959 deaths represent about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.
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