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Greg Moore and Michelle Gardner share their thoughts on the big ASU vs. Michigan State game.
Brian Snyder, Arizona Republic

Arizona Republic sports columnist Greg Moore has predicted a win for the Sun Devils. Here he explains the hunch.

All doom and gloom ahead of Arizona State’s first road test of the season, a showdown up in Big Ten country Saturday against heavily favored Michigan State?

You need to listen to your head coach and mix in a little hope — it’s a powerful thing.

“I’m an optimist,” ASU coach Herm Edwards said this week. “That’s just my personality. That’s who I am. … It’s very hard for me to dwell on the dark side. It’s no fun there.”

With that in mind, here’s how ASU is going to pull of a 13.5-point upset over the No. 19 Spartans up in East Lansing (which I’m calling for, for the record):

Just relax

They’re going to relax.

It might seem like the Sun Devils just eked their way past the Sacramento State Hornets at home last weekend, but the game wasn’t as close as it looked.

A bad call on a goal-line fumble, a bad snap in the red zone and a silly illegal block all killed big opportunities. (Also, dropped passes.)

If ASU cleans that stuff up, the perception of the team changes significantly.

The final score against Sacramento State was 19-7, but it just as easily could have been 31-7.

At that point, no one would question whether ASU had underperformed.

MORE: Scouting report: Can ASU get its run game going against Michigan State?

Rely on strengths 

They’re going to rely on their strengths.

ASU’s defense looks every bit as formidable as it did early last season. They’ve allowed just 14 points through two games.

Yes, those games were against cupcake opponents, but they still got stops and made plays when they needed them.

Darrien Butler, Merlin Robertson, Chase Lucas and Kobe Williams are all better than they were last year against the Spartans.

Michigan State put up 51 points on Western Michigan last week, but the program isn’t known as some sort of offensive juggernaut. And the scoring was low last season when these two teams met.

Look for the Sun Devils defense to keep the Spartans offense under or around 21.  

On special teams, ASU’s kickers have been a lock, whether it’s Brandon Ruiz kicking the way he did last year, when he hit 18 of 22 field goal attempts (82%) or Christian Zendejas kicking as he has through the first two weeks, he’s been perfect.  

ASU’s punter Michael Turk, meanwhile, is proving himself to be the best in the country. If he’s on the way he has been the first two weeks (Turk leads the nation, averaging more than 55 yards per punt on 10 attempts), the Sun Devils won’t give the Spartans a short field or easy scoring opportunities.

Don’t worry

They’re not going to worry about what they can’t do.

On offense, ASU can’t run the ball, but so what? MSU has the top run defense in the nation. Even if Eno Benjamin and the offensive line were clicking, it wouldn’t show up against the Spartans.

If they loosen up and rely on the pass attack, it can create a real advantage.

Edwards is a running coach, but he signaled that he’s willing to be flexible.

“You always have this mindset of what you want to be until you start playing,” he said. “And then you evaluate, and you assess what you have, and you say, ‘OK.’ The most important thing is allowing the players to have success and not let our egos get in our way and saying ‘I want to do this,’ when you’re putting players in position where they’re not comfortable.”

Rob Likens knows exactly how to put his guys in the right spots, especially Brandon Aiyuk.  

“We could move him around like we did N’Keal (Harry) last year. We could do some things of that nature, and just target him more,” Likens said of his big-play-waiting-to-happen wide out.

But he didn’t stop there.

“Frank (Darby) as well,” Likens said. “He’s got a special quality catching the deep ball. Kyle Williams is a good player to get the ball to in space.”

He knows his run game isn’t what anyone would like for it to be.  

“Let’s try to hide the things that we’re struggling with, as much as we can,” he said. “And let’s try to maximize the talent of some of our wide receivers and our skill guys.”

MORE: ASU football vs. Michigan State picks, predictions

Take a risk

They’re going to be willing to take risks.

Herm Edwards talked about his famous “You play to win the game” 2002 Jets and how he gave the offense a spark by swapping quarterbacks.

“We were 2-5. We ended up winning the division,” he said.

“I needed to do something,” he said later. “You can change every position on the team, and it doesn’t do a whole lot. You change quarterbacks, and it sends shock waves.”

Michigan State has given up five pass plays of more than 20 yards, including two of 30 or more yards and one that went for more than 40.

Enter Dillion Sterling-Cole.

Maybe he gets a couple of quarters to throw some deep balls to Darby, Aiyuk and Jordan Kerley?

We’ll see what happens Saturday.

Just don’t be shocked at an upset win.

It could happen.

“That’s the greatness about football,” Edwards said. “There’s all these moving parts. You have to come up with a game plan that allows your players to have success.”

Reach Moore at [email protected] or 602-444-2236. Follow him on Instagram and Twitter @WritingMoore.

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ASU vs. Sacramento State game photos

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