Arizona reported 497 new COVID-19 cases and 21 new known deaths Tuesday, continuing last week’s relatively lower case reports as well as a low percentage of tests returning positive for the virus. 

The state’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was 868 on Tuesday, per state data. It reached as high as 9,800 in January.

Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 35th Monday among all states, after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker.

The state’s seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 14th in the nation as of Monday, per the CDC. 

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has been declining but varies somewhat based on how it’s measured.

Last week, Arizona’s percent positivity was 5% for the second week in a row and 7% the week before that, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 2.7% as of Tuesday. It shows the state’s percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 227 deaths per 100,000 people as of Monday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 160 deaths per 100,000 people as of Monday, the CDC said.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 360 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Mississippi.

Arizona’s case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began also ranks sixth nationwide as of Monday.

Arizona’s newly reported 21 deaths brought the known COVID-19 death count to 16,574. The state surpassed 16,000 deaths on March 2 after passing 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior, because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 833,878 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. February and particularly March have seen relatively lower case reports.

Seven of the last nine days’ reported cases have been under 1,000, for the first time since October. 

The Arizona data dashboard shows 83% of all ICU beds and 87% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Monday, with 12% of ICU beds and 9% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 299 ICU beds and 1,129 non-ICU beds were available.

Hospitalizations for the disease have been dropping for about nine weeks.

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The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 743 on Monday, up from Sunday’s 716 inpatients and far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. By comparison, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 206 on Monday, a slight decrease from Sunday’s 210 and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 97 on Monday, a slight drop from 104 on Sunday and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Monday saw 873 patients in the emergency room for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for Phase 1A the week of Dec. 14. Registration is open in counties for priority or all Phase 1B individuals and those 65 and older, and the state at the start of March switched to a partly age-based rollout so those 55 and older are eligible at state sites and in many counties.

More than 1.6 million people statewide had received at least one vaccine dose as of Tuesday, with more than 1 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with two doses, state data show. Arizona has about 5.6 million adults age 18 and older.

March 11 marked one year since Gov. Doug Ducey issued an emergency declaration after health officials announced the state’s ninth case and the head of the World Health Organization named the outbreak a pandemic.

What to know about Tuesday’s numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 833,878.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 497, or 0.06%, from Monday’s 833,381 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the Arizona Department of Health Services, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 521,093 in Maricopa, 111,400 in Pima, 47,884 in Pinal, 36,601 in Yuma, 21,676 in Mohave, 18,129 in Yavapai, 16,891 in Coconino, 15,575 in Navajo, 11,427 in Cochise, 10,725 in Apache, 7,694 in Santa Cruz, 6,457 in Gila, 5,343 in Graham, 2,420 in La Paz and 562 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Graham and Navajo counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 15,917 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 8,816 cases per 100,000 people as of Monday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 29,954 cases and 1,218 confirmed deaths in total as of Monday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. A stay-at-home order and nightly curfew remain in effect. 

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,155 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Monday, including 2,241 in Tucson, 2,014 in Eyman, 2,009 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 43,632 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,714 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Forty-one incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 10 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 18% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 38% of positive cases have been diagnosed in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories have completed 3,934,434 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19, 14.1% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July and held steady around 4% for several weeks, per the state. It was at 5% for the last two full weeks. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The Arizona Department of Health Services includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Monday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Tennessee, according to the CDC.

Arizona’s infection rate is 11,441 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 8,816 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 16,574

Deaths by county: 9,447 in Maricopa, 2,304 in Pima, 818 in Pinal, 809 in Yuma, 666 in Mohave, 512 in Navajo, 477 in Yavapai, 400 in Apache, 317 in Coconino, 274 in Cochise, 218 in Gila, 172 in Santa Cruz, 77 in Graham, 73 in La Paz and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 12,422 of the 16,574 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 15% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 7% of deaths, 50% of those who died were white, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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