Arizona reported a low 423 new COVID-19 cases and 46 new known deaths Friday, continuing a recent pattern of lower daily case reports. 

The state’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was 457 on Friday, per state data. It reached as high as 9,800 in January.

Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 39th Thursday among all states, after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker.

The state’s seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 15th in the nation as of Thursday, per the CDC. 

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has been declining but varies somewhat based on how it’s measured.

Last week, Arizona’s percent positivity was 5% for the second week in a row and 7% the week before that, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 2.1% as of Friday. It shows the state’s percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 227 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 161 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, the CDC said.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 362 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Mississippi.

Arizona’s case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began also ranks sixth nationwide as of Thursday.

Arizona’s newly reported 46 deaths brought the known COVID-19 death count to 16,691. The state surpassed 16,000 deaths on March 2 after passing 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior, because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 835,030 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. February and particularly March have seen relatively lower case reports.

Ten of the last 12 days’ reported cases have been under 1,000, for the first time since October. 

The Arizona data dashboard shows 85% of all ICU beds and 89% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Thursday, with 11% of ICU beds and 8% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 266 ICU beds and 984 non-ICU beds were available.

Hospitalizations for the disease have been generally dropping for more than nine weeks.

The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 686 on Thursday, down from 743 on Wednesday and far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. By comparison, the highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 184 on Thursday, down from 200 on Wednesday and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 86 on Thursday, down from 93 on Wednesday and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Thursday saw 958 patients in the emergency room for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for Phase 1A the week of Dec. 14. Registration is open in counties for priority or all Phase 1B individuals and those 65 and older, and the state at the start of March switched to a partly age-based rollout so those 55 and older are eligible at state sites and in most counties.

More than 1.7 million people statewide had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with more than 1 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with two doses, state data show. Arizona has about 5.6 million adults age 18 and older.

What to know about Friday’s numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 835,030.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 423, or 0.05%, from Thursday’s 834,607 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the Arizona Department of Health Services, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 520,919 in Maricopa, 111,582 in Pima, 48,593 in Pinal, 36,651 in Yuma, 21,794 in Mohave, 18,244 in Yavapai, 16,916 in Coconino, 15,589 in Navajo, 11,475 in Cochise, 10,753 in Apache, 7,708 in Santa Cruz, 6,467 in Gila, 5,350 in Graham, 2,426 in La Paz and 563 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Graham and Navajo counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 15,938 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 8,865 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 29,987 cases and 1,228 confirmed deaths in total as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. A stay-at-home order and nightly curfew remain in effect. 

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,204 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Thursday, including 2,241 in Tucson, 2,021 in Eyman, 2,010 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 43,645 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,721 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Forty-one incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 11 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 18% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 38% of positive cases have been diagnosed in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories have completed 3,959,505 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19, 14% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July and held steady around 4% for several weeks, per the state. It was at 5% for the last two full weeks. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The Arizona Department of Health Services includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Thursday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Tennessee, according to the CDC.

Arizona’s infection rate is 11,462 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 8,865 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 16,691

Deaths by county: 9,512 in Maricopa, 2,322 in Pima, 829 in Pinal, 811 in Yuma, 672 in Mohave, 517 in Navajo, 479 in Yavapai, 404 in Apache, 320 in Coconino, 275 in Cochise, 217 in Gila, 172 in Santa Cruz, 77 in Graham, 74 in La Paz and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 12,504 of the 16,691 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 15% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 7% of deaths, 49% of those who died were white, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Friday morning was 2,693,814. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 539,801, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona’s death total of 16,691 deaths represents 3.1% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. 

Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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